1. Quick snapshot (market & recent headlines)

• Spot share price (close, 8 Dec 2025): ~₹2,484–2,485.
  
  
• Market cap (approx, 8 Dec 2025): ~₹1,00,000+ crore (range reported by market sites).
  
  
• Recent corporate / market-moving items: Government announced and executed a small OFS / stake sale (~4.0–4.8% program in 2025), which created short-term share-supply pressure. MDL has been in the spotlight for large defence projects (Project-75I submarine programme, LPD/warship bids).
  
  

2. Company overview & long financial timeline (concise history)

• Founding & evolution: Mazagon Dock’s shipbuilding roots in Mazagaon, Mumbai go back many decades; incorporated as Mazagon Dock Limited in the early 20th century and subsequently developed as India’s primary naval shipbuilder. Today MDL is a central public sector enterprise serving the Indian Navy, Coast Guard and select commercial customers. The company publishes audited annual reports and financials on its official site.
  
  
• Key historical phases (high level):
  
  
  • Pre-1990s: Established as a government-backed shipyard focused on naval projects and repair.
    
    
  • 1990s–2000s: Diversification into complex warship building and progressive capability upgrades.
    
    
  • 2010s: Modernisation, bigger projects, participation in multi-year defence procurements.
    
    
  • 2020s: Execution of large contracts, expansion of orderbook, increased revenues and public-market interest (including 2025 government OFS activity).
    
    

3. Financial performance — the recent five-year picture (revenue / profitability trend)

Public financial databases and the company’s annual disclosures show a clear uptrend in revenue and operating scale over the past several years:

• Revenue (consolidated): MDL’s reported annual revenue rose materially in recent years — for example, consolidated revenue moved from ~₹4,042 crore (FY21) to ₹11,196 crore (FY25) on some reported tables. That’s a steep multi-year increase reflecting order execution.
  
  
• Profitability: MDL has posted variable quarterly results (defence contracts have lumpy timing). Q2/Q3 2025 prints showed marked improvement (Kotak reported Q2 PAT jump ~28% YoY and interim dividend declaration), while some quarterly prints (e.g., a Q4) showed profit contractions in other periods — illustrating execution timing and working-capital effects.
  
  
• Order book & project pipeline: Media and analyst reports through 2024–2025 show very large prospective contracts (Project-75I submarine programme, potential >₹70,000 crore programme plus other warship tenders). A growing and visible order book is the principal driver behind stronger revenue guidance/bullish forecasts.
  
  

Interpretation: Revenue expansion in FY22–FY25 shows MDL moving from a lower-volume cycle to heavy execution, improving top line substantially. Defence contracts are long-cycle — margins and PAT can swing quarter-to-quarter because of timing, costs and provisioning.

4. Corporate & market events that matter

1. Government OFS / stake sale (2025): Centre initiated an offer for sale (OFS) program to reduce its stake by a few percentage points (reported ~2.8% initial with option up to ~4.8%). Such government-driven supply events depress price short-term and increase free-float/liquidity.
   
   
2. Project 75I / Submarine awards: Negotiations/clearance for very large submarine contracts (reports reference a ₹70,000 crore Project 75I and other submarine programmes totalling large sums). Winning and executing these could transform MDL’s revenue visibility for a decade.
   
   

Strategic partnerships / joint bids: MDL has pursued joint bids and partnerships (e.g., with private shipyards) to deliver certain LPD/warship contracts; these rearrange execution footprints and risk sharing.

Quick source summary (key inputs)

• FY2024–25 audited consolidated figures (Revenue ₹11,431.88 crore; PAT ₹2,324.88 crore; Balance order book ₹32,260 crore): Mazagon Dock Annual Report FY2024–25.
  
  
• Historical consolidated P&L / balance sheet series (FY2015 → FY2025): Screener company page (consolidated time series used to build the 10-yr table).
  
  
• Recent quarterly / market events (OFS / stake sale 2025; Q2 FY26 prints): Reuters / Economic Times summaries used for context.
  
  

1) Ten-year consolidated financial table (FY2016 → FY2025) — key items (₹ crore)

(Values obtained from Screener’s consolidated time series; FY ending Mar 2016 → Mar 2025)

Notes on the table:

• Revenue / Expenses / P&L rows are consolidated figures (₹ crore). EPS and profit numbers follow Screener’s consolidated series. (I used Screener’s time series for FY2016–FY2025).
  
  
• FY2025 audited figures in the Annual Report broadly match the FY25 rows (Annual Report reports Revenue ₹11,431.88 Cr and PAT ₹2,324.88 Cr – small rounding/format differences vs Screener).
  
  

If you want this table exported to Excel/CSV I can create a downloadable file next.

2) DCF Model (10-year explicit + terminal) — assumptions & results

A — Base assumptions (transparent)

• Base year revenue (FY25 consolidated): ₹11,431.88 crore (audited).
  
  
• Projection horizon: 10 years (FY26 → FY35), then terminal value.
  
  
• Revenue growth (annual): 12.0% p.a. (Base scenario — reflects strong orderbook execution).
  
  
• EBIT margin: starts ~16% in year 1, ramps linearly to 18% by year 10 (reflects scope for margin improvement as execution scales and operating leverage).
  
  
• Tax rate: 25% (approx consolidated effective tax).
  
  
• CapEx: 3% of revenue each year (conservative ongoing capex for yard investment/maintenance).
  
  
• Change in Net Working Capital (NWC): assume NWC increases 2% of revenue each year (working capital needs for execution).
  
  
• Discount rate (WACC): 10.0% (base).
  
  
• Terminal growth: 3.5% (long-term nominal growth).
  
  
• Net cash / (debt) added to EV to reach equity value: used Investments (₹765 Cr) minus Borrowings (₹20 Cr) = net cash ~ ₹745 crore (Screener values used).
  
  
• Shares outstanding (for per-share): equity capital ₹202 crore / face value ₹5 → 40.4 crore shares (used to convert equity value per share).
  
  

B — Year-by-year projection (selected rows)

(rounded ₹ crore)

(complete year-by-year FCFs were computed and discounted in the model; I can paste the full 10-row table if you want it verbatim or export to CSV.)

C — DCF results (base case)

• Present value of 10-year projected FCFs (discounted at 10%): ~ ₹9,918.8 crore.
  
  
• Terminal value (Year-10 FCF discounted into perpetuity at g = 3.5%): terminal value ≈ ₹48,055.5 crore (undiscounted) → PV (discounted to today) ≈ ₹18,527.5 crore.
  
  
• Enterprise Value (PV FCFs + PV terminal): ≈ ₹28,446.3 crore.
  
  
• Add net cash (Investments − Borrowings ≈ ₹745 Cr) → Equity Value ≈ ₹29,191.3 crore.
  
  
• Shares outstanding: 40.4 crore → Fair value per share ≈ ₹722.6.
  
  

Base DCF fair value ≈ ₹723 / share (rounded).

Important: the DCF here is a simple, transparent walk-through — results are highly sensitive to growth, margins, discount rate, capex and NWC assumptions (see sensitivity table below).

D — Sensitivity (fair value per share) — discount rate × terminal growth

(You can see how a small change in WACC or terminal growth swings per-share value materially.)

3) Interpretation & caveats (don’t skip these)

• The DCF base result (≈ ₹723/share) is well below the market price (market was ~₹2,484 on 8 Dec 2025). That gap can exist for several reasons: (a) the market is pricing in faster revenue growth or higher long-run margins than my base assumptions, (b) market expects very large transformational contracts (P-75I, LPD, upcoming submarine awards) that materially expand the order book beyond MDL’s FY25 visibility, (c) possible re-rating / strategic premium for defence PSUs, (d) one-time items or other income included in market valuations. Recent headlines (government OFS, large pipeline bids) also drive short-term price movements.
  
  
• My model is conservative on capex (3%) and assumes revenue growth 12% p.a.; if you believe MDL will win & execute very large new submarine/LPD contracts (or maintain higher margins), fair value would be much higher. Conversely, execution slippages or higher working capital needs reduce value.
  
  
• Model excludes non-operating items that may be in other income; I added investments − borrowings as a simple net cash adjustment (Screener values). For a fully audit-grade valuation we should use the company’s balance-sheet cash & equivalents, liquid investments, long-term liabilities, and incorporate lease liabilities / minority interests precisely.
  
  

4) Next steps I can do right now (pick any)

• Export the 10-year historical table + detailed year-by-year DCF projection to Excel/CSV and provide a download link. (I can produce the file in this chat.)
  
  
• Run alternative DCF scenarios (Conservative / Base / Aggressive) — e.g., growth 6% / 12% / 18% and show resulting fair values and sensitivity grids.
  
  
• Build a peer relative valuation (PE / EV/EBITDA vs other Indian shipyards / defence manufacturers) and show current implied multiples and re-rating scenarios.
  
  

Create a watchlist + dashboard of 6 KPIs to track quarterly (Order Book, Revenue YoY, EBIT margin, PAT, Receivables days, Cash conversion) and flag thresholds.