Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd Share Price Prediction & Financial Analysis: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2050

Financial Overview and Recent Performance

Aadhar Housing Finance has demonstrated consistent growth, particularly in the affordable housing segment. For FY25, the company reported a 21.64% increase in net profit to ₹911.83 crore, up from ₹749.64 crore in FY24, with sales rising 20.13% to ₹3,107.63 crore. In Q4 FY25, net profit grew 21.35% to ₹244.84 crore, and sales increased 20.35% to ₹832.61 crore compared to Q4 FY24. Assets under management (AUM) expanded by 21% to ₹25,531 crore, and the company maintained a low gross NPA of 1.05%, reflecting strong asset quality. The return on assets (ROA) stood at 4.3%, and return on equity (ROE) was 16.9%, impacted slightly by IPO proceeds of ₹1,000 crore.

Key financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 20.90, a P/B ratio of 2.99, and a high promoter holding of 75.61%, with 67.45% pledged. The company’s focus on digital innovation and a network of over 500 branches supports its operational efficiency, though it spent 37.77% of operating revenues on interest expenses in FY25. Historically, Aadhar Housing Finance has achieved a CAGR of 15.8% in share price growth, which we will use as a baseline, alongside a more optimistic 20% CAGR, for forecasting.

Share Price Forecast Methodology

The share price forecast is calculated using a compounded growth model:

Future Value = Present Value × (1 + CAGR)^n

Where:

• Present Value = ₹440.95 (as of May 9, 2025)
• CAGR = 15.8% (historical) and 20% (optimistic)
• n = Number of years from 2025 to the target year

Analyst reports, such as ICICI Securities’ target of ₹550 (24.7% upside) and a median target of ₹564.38 by eight analysts, provide a near-term benchmark. The company’s strong AUM growth (21% CAGR projected for FY24–27) and government support for affordable housing further underpin these projections.

Share Price Forecast

2025: Near-Term Outlook

For 2025, analysts project a target price of ₹525–₹650, implying a 19–47% upside from ₹440.95. Applying a 15.8% CAGR, the share price could reach ₹510.65; a 20% CAGR suggests ₹529.14. The company’s bullish technical indicators, recent breakout patterns, and strong Q4 FY25 results support this optimism. Government initiatives like PMAY-U 2.0 are expected to drive loan demand, enhancing Aadhar’s growth.

2030: Medium-Term Growth

By 2030, a 15.8% CAGR projects a share price of ₹1,038.65, while a 20% CAGR yields ₹1,676.54. Aadhar’s focus on small-ticket mortgage loans and geographic diversification across tier-2 and tier-3 cities will likely sustain its 21% AUM growth. Stable asset quality and increasing FII holdings (5.32% in March 2025) indicate growing institutional confidence.

2035: Long-Term Potential

By 2035, the share price could reach ₹2,114.10 at a 15.8% CAGR or ₹5,313.27 at a 20% CAGR. India’s urbanization and rising disposable incomes are expected to boost housing finance demand, particularly in the affordable segment. Aadhar’s digital platforms and low NPA levels will enhance its competitive edge, though interest rate fluctuations could pose challenges.

2050: Vision for the Future

By 2050, a 15.8% CAGR forecasts a share price of ₹8,757.91, while a 20% CAGR suggests ₹53,167.79. These long-term projections assume sustained economic growth, supportive policies, and Aadhar’s ability to maintain market leadership. However, risks like regulatory changes or economic slowdowns could impact outcomes.

Key Financial Metrics and Investment Considerations

• P/E Ratio: 20.90, a 36% premium to peers’ median of 15.40, reflecting growth expectations.
• P/B Ratio: 2.99, 29% above peers’ median of 2.32, indicating a premium valuation.
• ROE: 16.9% in FY25, strong but slightly lower than 18.4% in FY24 due to IPO dilution.
• AUM Growth: 21% in FY25, with projections of 21% CAGR through FY27.
• Analyst Ratings: 6 strong buy, 2 buy, 0 sell, per LiveMint data.

Risks and Challenges

• High Interest Expenses: 37.77% of revenues, which could pressure margins if rates rise.
• Pledged Promoter Shares: 67.45% of promoter holding, posing governance risks.
• Market Volatility: Recent 4.02% monthly decline suggests short-term fluctuations.
• Competition: Peers like PNB Housing and Aptus Value Housing may challenge market share.

Industry Context

India’s affordable housing sector is poised for growth, driven by government schemes like PMAY and rising urbanization. The sector’s loan book is expected to grow at a 15–20% CAGR through 2030, aligning with Aadhar’s AUM trajectory. The company’s focus on economically weaker sections and digital underwriting positions it to capture this demand, though regulatory changes could impact lending norms.

Conclusion

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd presents a compelling investment opportunity, with share price targets of ₹510.65–₹529.14 by 2025, ₹1,038.65–₹1,676.54 by 2030, ₹2,114.10–₹5,313.27 by 2035, and ₹8,757.91–₹53,167.79 by 2050, based on 15.8–20% CAGR. Its strong financials, leadership in affordable housing, and favorable industry trends support long-term growth. However, investors should monitor risks like high interest costs and promoter pledges. Consulting a financial advisor is recommended before investing.

Disclaimer: These forecasts are based on historical data and analyst projections and are not guaranteed. Always seek professional financial advice.